Muhammed Ali rarely dispatched his opponents with one left hook or right cross. He wore them down over a series of rounds before knocking them out. Barack Obama is getting close to knocking Hillary Clinton out of the Democratic nomination in what will go down as a political slugfest conducted mostly with smiles and nods. Round three was fought last night. Obama's first left hook was his victory in Iowa. (thud!) A black man sweeping to victory in a lilly-white state. Clinton parried with her New Hampshire tears and unexpectedly carried the nation's first primary. On Super Tuesday, Obama swept thirteen states to Clinton's eight and much of the heartland, shortly after another Clinton tear-up, bringing him into a virtual draw in the elected delegate count. (thwack!) Last night, Senator Clinton's eyes moistened up again, while listening to a military man in Maine. But few noticed her, as Obama won Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana and the Virgin Islands by wide margins. (bam!) He is favored to win the Maryland and D.C. primaries next week and may win Virginia too. (doink!) The Clinton campaign might not appear to be in trouble, but it is. (wobble ... wobble.)

   As the primaries roll on, it is likely that Obama will win the majority of the elected delegates leading up to the convention. Democrats will not want to risk a 'smoke filled rooms' decision. They want a knock-out, not a split decision open to interpretation and spin. Their nomination process, at all costs, cannot resemble a rigged fight, an inside job or an attempt to pay off an easily manipulated fight-judge. There will be heavy pressure, within the party itself, to make the elected delegate winner the nominee and avoid the wild-cards presented by two problems that could decimate the party.

   The first problem is the super-delegates. As most everyone knows by now, these are made up of senators, congressmen, governors and party officials, who are free to vote as they choose. They could swing the nomination either way. But the party that has made 'every vote counts' their mantra cannot afford a manipulative, arm-twisting process as the Clinton and Obama campaigns slug it out for votes. A king-making effort will clobber the Democratic Party and sully its already tarnished reputation.

   The other issue is what to do with Florida and Michigan. Senator Clinton won Florida's winner take all delegates, who were previously disallowed because Florida changed its primary date to January 29th, Democrats forbade any campaigning in the state. Likewise Michigan, which also took the further step of requiring Obama and Edwards voters to cast 'uncommitted' votes. Are these votes 'fair votes?' Should they be counted? Will Florida and Michigan be forced to hold caucuses and nullify the previous votes? There is no good scenario to include Florida and Michigan without being accused of manipulation by party hacks. Better they be left out entirely. The one thing to be avoided at all costs is the picture of Clinton's wresting the nomination from a black man with deftly deployed dirty tricks.

   The truth is that Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination because he has the three M's. He has money, momentum and the map. They all favor him, and he continues to pick up endorsements every day. Obama is clobbering Senator Clinton in fund-raising, three to one in the last month, with more names and fewer tapped-out contributors. The map tilts heavily in favor of Obama. His wins last night were lopsided and there is every indication that despite Mrs. Clinton's wins on Super Tuesday in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennesee that Obama will continue to play much better in the heartland as the primaries roll on. If Obama wins two of three out of Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania the nomination will be his by early April. With all this in mind, on this day, it becomes harder to imagine a road to victory for the Clinton's.

   The only question that remains is this: will Senator Clinton accept the number two slot? Time will tell. But because the Clintons have no life outside politics and because Hillary would be in her late sixties (still young enough) if Obama serves two terms, the worst-case Clinton delayed gratification scenario for her winning the presidency, she just might accept. But there may have to be a few more tears before that happens. This time the American public might sympathize.

John Pendleton